Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.948446 3.541009 4.203665 4.996925 5.917855 6.950372 8.192544
2025-04-20 2.155824 2.965679 3.978881 5.326303 7.056106 9.185754 11.987307
2025-04-27 1.603451 2.485033 3.700012 5.464698 7.923809 11.185057 15.783550
2025-05-04 1.263195 2.173901 3.538537 5.673777 8.857595 13.341480 20.021989
2025-05-11 0.978927 1.858671 3.282889 5.666682 9.441111 15.042773 23.793061
2025-05-18 0.739414 1.545498 2.951398 5.459209 9.657575 16.193940 26.849298
2025-05-25 0.553703 1.272524 2.620493 5.175729 9.683349 17.019163 29.453526
2025-06-01 0.442063 1.108467 2.442937 5.113278 10.045068 18.384818 33.000819
2025-06-08 0.355380 0.970384 2.282447 5.046402 10.375081 19.711318 36.582193
2025-06-15 0.317383 0.930498 2.308599 5.335441 11.375567 22.260746 42.410687
2025-06-22 0.265936 0.842717 2.214358 5.364200 11.882426 23.980226 46.942121
2025-06-29 0.221605 0.759266 2.111386 5.354637 12.306253 25.577605 51.373433
2025-07-06 0.182483 0.679187 2.003550 5.326323 12.708523 27.209834 56.077923
2025-07-13 0.170805 0.677269 2.088661 5.750664 14.105106 30.863197 64.809777
2025-07-20 0.149475 0.637760 2.069071 5.926579 14.992704 33.607093 72.048165
2025-07-27 0.133260 0.609579 2.073695 6.161281 16.034583 36.742264 80.261818
2025-08-03 0.111797 0.554101 1.989071 6.157330 16.536952 38.824854 86.576217
2025-08-10 0.088366 0.480246 1.831753 5.935488 16.504711 39.793401 90.748141
2025-08-17 0.067822 0.407261 1.656616 5.630890 16.231226 40.217765 93.839367
2025-08-24 0.055824 0.365734 1.572022 5.563819 16.528319 41.894394 99.617872
2025-08-31 0.045864 0.328316 1.491038 5.491876 16.802113 43.537810 105.434599
2025-09-07 0.042802 0.325528 1.534186 5.803007 18.103290 47.595049 116.648300
2025-09-14 0.036524 0.301124 1.489946 5.833960 18.663900 49.993103 124.419381